Happy New Year!

Another year has passed, and oh-so-quickly.  What happened this year?  Let’s see:

• Welcoming Isabelle!
• Having my parents over for four months was great – chance to reconnect and to have Gabriel get to know them better.
• Peak Oil – the high oil and gasoline prices made this hit home.  I moved some of my portfolio to energy, but alas…
• Economic crisis – it’s hard to step back from an event when you are observing it first hand.  This will be a landmark year in the future, as much as 9/11 was.  It will lead to fundamental changes in the way the global economy operates.
• Baking bread – I started with simple loaves in July, but I’ve come a long way since then.  Focaccia, baguettes and rustic loaves…. yummy!

What should happen next year?

• I’m looking for more exercise.  Cycling to work is great, but not intense enough.  One major hike in the weekends will be nice as well as a couple of long lunch-time routines on the bicycle.
• Flossing daily.  My wisdom tooth is starting to act up and we shall see how long I can keep it quiet.
• Pursue my professional development – need to keep up with the times.  Attend at least three non-Savi events.
• Write more.  Write often.  My posts have become irregular – once a month doesn’t capture sufficient progress.

I’ll review this next year to see where we are.

Two weeks old

IK is now two weeks old.  She’s been very well behaved so R and I are very thankful but wondering when it will end.  She sleeps most of the time, and whimpers when she’s hungry.  She sometimes need to be held before sleeping, but will also sleep by herself.

Unlike G, there’s no schedule to strive for – we’re letting IK set her own pace and eating when she’s hungry and sleeping when she’s not.  Mummy and Papa are helping where they can – taking G to his play dates and to activities, cooking for dinner and cleaning up.  This is not as tumultuous as we had feared.

When G was about this age, he had bouts of colic.  We think it was related to our inexperience or inability to burp him and he was often uncomfortable.  IK has proved to be totally opposite – she burps without too much coaxing and sometime even by sitting up she will produce a loud belch.  Her crying bouts are never inconsolable.

So far, so good – we’re counting our blessings.

Birth Announcement: Isabelle Kok

Rosanna and I are proud to announce the birth of our baby girl, Isabelle.

She was born on Friday, 20th June, 2008 6.54 am in the morning at the Kaiser Permanente Medical Center in Santa Clara, California. She entered the world weighing 2.87 kg and 48 cm long with a head full of hair and a hungry cry.

Inflation Hits Home

Everyone is hearing about rising inflation. Besides the sky-high petrol prices, it’s been mostly subtle – a few cents here and there.

When it hits home is when my favourite “deal” becomes less of a bargain…My favorite coffee roaster in Mountain View on Dana Street just raised it’s prices this month. A latte goes for $2.45 (from $2.15). And my bare-bones hair dresser now charges $6 (from $5). Ouch. In Singapore, inflation is at 7% and Malaysia raises petrol prices by 40%. Even oil-exporting countries are not spared.

Is this a symptom of how rising energy prices will dramatically alter the way we live?

Oh, and crude oil hits another record today, closing at $138/barrel.

Peak Oil – further ruminations

Peak Oil has finally made it to US mainstream news. The New York Times has published an article titled “The Future of Oil” which although does not use the term “peak oil”, nevertheless calls out that oil supply is clearly overstretched. The columnist Krugman lent his weight with a broader swipe at industrial growth founded on cheap resources – “when an ever-growing world economy pushes up against the finite limits of a planet”.

Sadly, it has not yet made its impact on the political debate. Two of the three leading US presidential candidates are entertaining the thought suspending gasoline tax to provide relief for drivers – a short sighted effort which does nothing to address the root cause of the problem that oil production is now supply constrained. As all populist leaders, they must await a crisis before mustering the political will to act. The US would never have embarked on the Manhattan Project without Pearl Harbor.

On a personal level, I’ve ascended a little from the depths of despair. Declining oil production will be painful, but we are all in it together. If it’s painful for someone earning $100K/year in Silicon Valley, it must be much much worse for others in poorer places. It is no surprise that the food crisis of 2008 earned a special report in the Economist.

I spent the better part of the last four months rebalancing my investment portfolios. At least I have been forewarned (not by much). There are several resources out there that are useful for those who seek options and these are a few that I visit regularly:

• The Oil Drum. Unlike other peak oil websites, it does not focus purely on apocalyptic prophecies. It has a number of contributors who make some interesting observations about peak oil.
• Alternative Energy Stocks. Interesting ideas about possible suppliers of alternative energy.
• Energy Investment Strategies. A direct take on how to profit from the trends in energy production.

I have now placed a third of my portfolio in energy related stocks, with an emphasis to suppliers with sufficient reserves of oil, transportation alternatives and other energy suppliers.

Surprisingly, I expect a bubble around the oil prices driven by speculative interest. Broad admission of limited supplies will drive a gold rush to energy producers and costs of oil even higher. Already, there are calls on US government intervention, which will become a reality when gasoline prices reach $10/gallon.

My take is that $200/barrel is very likely by end of 2009, and even by end of 2008 if investors crowd into the market. What price would it force US consumers (and others elsewhere) to realize that behaviours need to be modified if we are to survive the next two decades?

Ultrasounds of Baby No. 2

R had her appointment with the ultrasound machine today at KP. The technician spent 30 minutes measuring all aspects of the baby from head to toe. We were very thankful to hear that everything was in working order – heart, fingers, cranium and all the major bones.

We asked not to be informed of the gender. We believe in accepting God’s gift as they are – having a boy or girl will not change the way we will love our child.

Peak Oil

Over the past couple of months, I have been following the relentless rise in energy prices (petrol is now $3.50/gallon). Seeking the cause of this, I unearthed some troubling news which is an epiphany of sorts.

“Peak oil” – a term used by some geologist who foresee the imminent peaking of world oil production. A good reference is the Hirsch Report. The report forecasts that geological constraints will result in falling oil production as most of the major oil fields are past their peak production lives.

Given that the past three generations have grown up in a world of increasing mechanization driven by the availability of cheap fuel, the peak oil seems like the end of a golden era. Oil is probably the most convenient form of energy that makes possible modern transportation – especially automobiles and air travel. It also drives the wheels of industry allowing for mining of minerals and agriculture on a scale unprecedented before in human history. But the earth’s largesse is now reached its limits – what will this mean for the future?

While noone can predict how fast the supply of oil will be reduced, or what it’s exact effects will be, any rational analysis will conclude that the effects cannot be rosy. The worst case scenarios include a total breakdown of civilization and a return to pre-Industrial society. Optimists might hope for technological advances that will yield efficiencies and allow us to retain a semblance of modern life.

In the past year, since Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth”, the attention of the media has been fixated on Global Warming. What is likely is the reality of reduced oil production will likely force a reduction in carbon emissions anyway, and that the impact of that happening will hit us far sooner than rising ocean levels or climate changes. I am fearful that in the next ten years, oil prices will increase ten-fold. Air travel will be hard hit and other fuel-intensive sectors of the economy slow down.

What can I do? Well, some events are likely to happen. Higher inflation, as the cost of goods are pushed up by rising fuel prices. Commodity and energy prices will rise driven by shorter supplies and inelastic demand. Renewables can only meet a fraction of our current needs, and even then the generation of wind turbines and solar panels require a technological infrastructure that itself will be heavily strained.

This is a life-changing realization that I must act now to protect my family and our future. Nothing like this has ever happened before and I can’t believe how few people are aware of this impact.

Expecting No. 2!

Last week, R and I had our doctor confirm that she was expecting No. 2! Due in Jul ‘08, we’re really excited about the news. Being parents to G has been a great experience filled with joy and laughter for us. Despites anxiety about costs of living and being able to cope with two young ones, I wouldn’t trade the our time for the rest of the world.

Christmas is almost upon us. This year, we are headed to Guerneville, in the Sonoma county north of San Francisco. R’s family will be spending Christmas with us and we’re glad to share the holidays with loved ones.

Summer in Singapore

I’ve returned to Singapore numerous times after a stint abroad. First, it was studying in Australia, then working in Switzerland and now the Bay Area where my family and I have made our home for nearly a year. We arrived last night after a 20-hour flight from San Francisco – in one of SIA’s spanking new Boeing 777-300 ER (Extended Range) with 10 inch

Every return evokes scents and memories. The warm humid air makes one feel sticky almost immediately. The savoury tastes from myriad stalls in the hawker centre makes eating a true pleasure – we started with prawn noodles for breakfast this morning. We still have a list of a dozen eateries to visit during our stay.

The spacious apartment at Cavenagh Road reminded me of late nights working Sunnyvale hours while I telecommuted from Singapore. This was also where G spent his first three months – the long nights putting him to sleep and trying to comfort him. Endless hours of pacing the dining room and balcony lent a strange familiarity to these otherwise unremarkable spaces.

Seven Months

R is now seven months pregnant! I’m closer than ever to being a father, and can no longer put off the growing list of tasks that we need to complete before the child is due in June.

• Pick a name. We’re narrowing this down to a handful of both male and female since we’ve decided not to find out about the baby’s gender.
• Reading up on what to expect when she’s expecting.
• Go shopping for baby stuff (and what a lot of stuff that can be!)
• Attend ante-natal classes. We just attended the first session on Wed. Lots of exercises for R. She’s in good shape because she started early with yoga.

Our US Visa application has still not been resolved, so we are deciding to have the baby in Singapore. What was promised to be a few weeks formality is now more than six months (and counting). Unbelievable. It’s not the best outcome, but we have little choice. Besides, we have family and friends here and we look forward to sharing our joy with them.

I leave tomorrow for Sunnyvale, and hope to be back in time for Easter.