Freakonomics: A Fresh Look at Conventional Wisdom

Just returned from a trip to Washington D.C., and finished one of the more interesting books on economics.  The authors of Freakonomics disclaim any unifying theme to their book, and the title isn’t much help either, but here’s how I’d summarize it.

The book looks at various social trends such as the large drop in crime rate in the US from the 1980’s to 2000, causes for child success and reexamines some of the causes for these events.  It shows that how some commonly-held views are not backed by analytical or statistical data and that better insight may be gleaned from understanding the incentives behind the behaviour or trend.

The man behind these ideas is Steven Levitt, who digs up all kinds of surprising  and fascinating truths that makes this such an interesting book.   His insight is backed with well-documented end notes and well so because some of his conclusions are quite unconventional (especially around the link between legalized abortion and crime rates).

The book weighs in at only 200 pages and is well worth the time.

Admiral Zheng He’s Voyages

I visited an exhibition here in Singapore that celebrated the 600th anniversary of Zheng He’s first voyage. This famed Chinese explorer set voyaged through the South China Sea, Straits of Malacca and to India and Africa. He represented a brief period of Chinese exploration that preceded the Portuguese and Spanish. The exhibition presented details about his life (he was born a Muslim in the province of Yunnan), his ascendancy (as an eunuch in the service of the emperor) and the enormous fleets that he commanded (over 100 ships and hundreds of thousands of sailors).

The interesting part of this exhibition was that it based much of it’s material on the recent bestseller from Gavin Menzies titled 1421: The Year China Discovered America. It was a theory put forth that part of Zheng He’s fleet had continued his journeys and crossed the Atlantic and Pacific hundreds of years before the Europeans did.

It was based on cartographic evidence that early explorers were armed with maps that indicated the possible presence of land to the West of the Azores prior to Columbus’s voyage. The author started his search at the James Ford Bell library, where the earliest dated maps had references to unknown islands on the far end of the Atlantic.

His theory is thinly supported by archaeological finds of possible Chinese artifacts around the world, as well as through etymological comparison of the names given in the maps. Unfortunately, the most important evidence – details from Zheng He’s journeys – were burnt by the Emperor when China decided to shut itself to the outside world. Even then, rumours abound that perhaps some writings were salvaged and still remain hidden somewhere in China.

The theory and evidence are documented in the 1421, and there is much controversy surrounding the conclusions that Menzies reached. Some of the journeys that he postulates (such the circumnavigation of Greenland by ship) are highly speculative. I am troubled that an exhibition of this magnitude presented such tenous conclusions as facts despite the fact that much work still needs to be done.

This is one book that goes into my reading list!

The 9/11 Commission Report

This formal report is the output of the official commission investigating the events of September 11. It was established in November 2002 and this report has been two years in the making. Unlike most official reports, it is well written and clear. It focuses on facts and manages to avoid prejudicial findings.

The report starts with how events transpired on that day and a blow by blow account of how different parties responded. It provides a timeline and lays out an orderly account of the details. After reading this, the images of exploding airplanes and collapsing buildings start to make sense.

The most interesting part of this report is the complete background leading up to the attacks. It gave a detailed investigation of the decade before the attacks and how events occuring in the Middle East led to the rise of Al Qaida and terrorism. Based on accounts by thousands, including Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the mastermind of the attack now in US custody, the report describes how the attacks were planned and executed.

This report ends with recommendations, some of which are being implemented today. Biometric identification being introduced in airports, extended tracking of terrorist financing, and the reorganisation of intelligence agencies – these are some of the few recommendations that the report makes. This report will clearly affect the shape of the world we live in tomorrow.

Wild Swans

Chinese history has always been uncharted territory for me. I learned about the Civil War, the Kuomintang, all through oblique references from books that covered other, larger events that concerned Western authors.

Yet, it is a persistent question – how did this country of emerge from a myopic Communist rule into two decades of unprecendented growth and subsequent transformation into one of the largest economies of the world? Its economic achievements is nothing short of a miracle, yet it was born of a most painful gestation.

It was in this tumultous period of China’s 20th century history that Jung Chang’s Wild Swans chronicles her family’s fortune as they were buffetted by the raging forces of chaos that engulfed the country. They lived through the Sino-Japanese war in Machuria, under Japanese occupation, the civil war between the KMT and the Communists, and finally had to endure two and a half decades of Chairman Mao’s tyranny.

Here, the author describes first hand experiences about how Mao’s “Great Leap Forward” brought the entire nation to the brink of starvation in his attempt to raise steel production to the levels of Western nations. And this was not all – the tragic tale continues about how the personality cult of Mao allowed the Cultural Revolution to terrorize the entire population and to send millions into reformation camps. Her family suffered denunciations and forced labour as they were tyrannized by Mao’s Red Guard.

These memoirs are fascinating because it helps me understand a little more of China’s recent past, especially the violence and terror from which the society has emerged.

It is interesting to know that Mao was not held accountable for the misery of millions under his rule. Instead, he is still revered by the Communist Party as its founder. Outside China, his name does not evoke the distaste of other 20th century tyrants such as Hitler or Stalin – in Singapore, the House of Mao is a chic restaurant styled in the decor of his Red Guard and covered with memorabilia from the Cultural Revolution.

Five stars – excellent reading.

Phi and the Divine Proportion

Phi – the Greek alphabet that denotes the golden ratio. It is a fixed mathematical ratio that has been associated with aesthetically pleasing shapes, which is what Huntley’s book, The Divine Proportion, attempts to describe. This ratio permeates various geometrical structures and has been linked to pleasing shapes (as identified through independent surveys).

Unfortunately, my mathematical faculties have been unexercised since I left university, and the book stretches my knowledge to its limits. If I were reading this ten years earlier, I might have found it easier. But nonetheless, this tome is for those who are comfortable with mathematical expressions, and not for an unprepared reader.

But still Huntley has made a commendable effort to bring together various disciplines – of music, psychology, geometry, algebra – and ties everything together with the Golden Ratio. His arguments are refreshing – its one of the first times I have heard anyone argue for the beauty of mathematics.

Now, if I only had the time to revise my algebra and work on those exercises!

3 stars.

Newer Testament

Another translation of the New Testament? Why? Don’t we have enough Bibles already? I would not have paid any more attention this book, except that I noted Lattimore’s other works.

Lattimore’s background was interesting primarily because he had a reputation as a translator of Greek classics. He has translated most the major Greek works, from Homer to anonymous Greek tragic poems – a quick search of Amazon’s store will show.

His approach to translating was to remain faithful to the original Greek as possible. Unburdened by dogmatic concerns, he was able to focus on the text itself. For those of us unschooled in ancient Greek, this is an unequalled opportunity to get closer to the writers.

Reading this translation was a very different experience from other translations. For one thing, the text is not printed with chapters and verse numbers – it flows as normal prose. Punctuation is kept to the minimum (in keeping with the ancient texts), so there is none of the “red-letter” versions of the Gospel that are popular among those who feel that Jesus’s words are of greater importance than the rest of inspired Scripture.

The writings are now made alive with Lattimore’s fresh perspective. I read Paul’s letter to the Phillipians and felt the warmth and closeness that the Apostle had towards this community. I found myself reading the letters as a whole, instead of reading them in parts. Traditional bibles are designed almost as reference material, neatly indexed and divided to facilitate skimming and readings of short verses.

This translation is an excellent complement to the Bible. Four stars.

Practical Software Requirements

Writing requirements as a product manager has always been a black art to me. It’s not impossible but it normally involves a lot of fudging and reading it always make me feel that there’s something missing. I often end up putting specifications inside the requirements document. How do I make it complete without ending up writing the specifications itself?

Kovitz’s Practical Software Requirements provides a clear and concise guide to writing requirements by looking at the problem of developing software. By examining how we frame a problem and its domains, the book explains how the reader can extract elements of the requirements and specifications documents and present them in a concise manner.

Throughout the book, he proposes how its content can be written and provides clear examples. His approach is direct and concise, and he teaches the reader how to write without any hint of legalese that permeate traditional corporate requirements documents. His examples are practical and he addresses common mistakes that writers make.

I’ve thoroughly enjoyed reading this book, and it has been an invaluable tool in helping me write better requirements and specifications at work.

The Skeptical Environmentalist

Bjorn Lomborg presents a challenge to environmentalist groups everywhere who exaggerate the problems the world is facing today. He considers each of their propositions and attempts to put their claims in context with the overall progress of the world. His findings indicate that despite popular belief and the claims of environmentalists, the world today is better off than before.

For his pains, the author has been lambasted by left wing groups as being a stooge of capitalists. Yet, his book is well documented, with 3000 notes supporting the many claims that he makes. Perhaps he is expecting this strong reaction, and if so, I commend his courage to take such a strong stand and to raise environmental issues to the front, to be prioritised and evaluated along with other pressing problems that face our societies today.

His basic premise is that we need to take an objective evaluation of many of the environmental problems that are thrust into our attention by the media and other groups. The understanding of the Real State of the world will allow us to prioritise our attention most effectively, instead of having the public agenda hijacked by interest groups who proclaim selected statistics in order to further their cause.

Recommended reading for anyone concerned about the environment today.

A Primer on Indonesian History

A Nation in Waiting by Adam Schwarz presents one of the most complete one-volume history of modern Indonesia.

It covers the period from Indonesia’s struggle for independence from the Dutch under Sukarno in the late 40’s until the end of the 20th century. Its history is as varied as the expanse of its territory. It ranges from the extremes of its economic cycle to the ethnic clashes between the pribumis and Chinese, from the corruption and fall of the Suharto regime to the genocidal occupation of East Timor.

The author covers each of the above topics in great detail – in addition, he describes the role of Islam in the politics of the country, the influence of the military and the characteristics of the Javanese system of patronage. Each topic is well covered, but for the book as a whole lacks cohesion. It does not detract too much from the content – but potential readers should note that its light on analysis and heavy on factual presentation.

Living in Malaysia and Singapore for most of this period, this book was my first introduction to Indonesia’s chequered past. Its neighbours are understandably cautious in how they present views on the largest country in Southeast Asia – controversial news
is often considered sensitive and carefully edited to avoid inflaming the parties involved. For this, I’m glad to have read this book – it was a comprehensive primer on the recent history of modern Indonesia.

The Frozen-Water Trade

I picked this book up upon when I listened to an extract read on the BBC World Service several months ago. It spoke of a wild venture by a New England businessman to ship ice from Boston to the tropics. It seemed to me a fantastic and improbably story.

The very fact that it was improbably caught my attention – even with the technological advances of today, when little seems impossible, the idea of an industry based on shipping frozen water thousands of miles by ship seemed a little ludicrous.

It is to Weightman’s credit that he transformed this almost-forgotten industry from the footnotes of history into a gripping tale of commercial endeavour and perseverance. It is an inspiring read and a fine example of how history holds more than dusty dull stories.